$SUI started to surge, but supply pressure in October is also coming As of 1 PM on September 26, OKX spot $SUI was quoted at $1.1602, up 14.83% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of $1.2172; perpetual positions were about $43.01 million, and the funding rate was positive. This round of rally has verifiable product catalysts: DeepBook App launched on September 24, integrating spot and short-cycle Predict, with the underlying shared order book processing over $20 billion cumulatively. Bitwise tokenized RWA has also started entering the Bluefin Lend collateral scenario. The next event point is the token release in early October. Approximately from September 30 to October 3, the release scale ranges from about 2.07 million to 25.8 million SUI. The official page only provides an estimated curve and clearly states that the release pace will be adjusted according to the foundation's deployment. Verifiable trading indicators include changes in on-chain circulation, whether related addresses transfer to exchanges, and whether the spot market can absorb the new supply. Meanwhile, AlphaFi exited Sui due to bad debt caused by oracle configuration errors, and users are withdrawing funds from related strategies. If the exchange balance does not increase significantly before the unlock, and DeepBook trading continues to expand, the supply impact may be limited. If a large amount of tokens enter the market and contract longs continue to add positions, spot selling pressure and concentrated liquidations will simultaneously amplify the pullback.

Long-term bond yields hit new highs, crypto market faces higher valuation thresholds On September 25, the US 30-year Treasury yield intraday reached 5.5016%, the highest since 2004; the 10-year yield once rose to 5.2251%, near levels not seen since 2007. This upward move is not only due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations, the resilience of the US economy, and continued government bond issuance collectively require investors to receive higher compensation for holding long-term bonds. Japan's 30-year government bond yield is also above 4%, indicating that long-end repricing has spread globally. The real economy sector first under pressure is real estate. According to Freddie Mac data, the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.03%, increasing monthly payments for homebuyers, compressing financing for developers and home sales; on the corporate side, new debt interest costs are rising, with greater pressure on low-rated companies and growth enterprises reliant on external financing. As of now, OKX's BTC is about $84,027, down 0.23% in 24 hours, not experiencing a runaway decline alongside yields; recent ETF inflows continue to absorb spot sell-offs. However, the longer the risk-free yield stays above 5%, the higher the opportunity cost of holding crypto. Before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 26-27, watch whether oil prices, inflation, and the 10-year yield can retreat. If long-term bonds continue to be sold off, ETF buying needs to be stronger to maintain $BTC's current resilience. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温

BTC is maintaining its rhythm, with ZEC awaiting the next key milestone. According to OKX market data, $BTC is currently at $84,053, down 0.38% in 24 hours; $ETH at $2,691, up 0.15%; $ZEC at $1,555, up 0.53%. In the past five full trading days, BTC closed within the $83,800-$86,419 range on four days. It is currently operating within this range and cannot be considered a renewed breakout. ETFs continue to provide spot support. As of September 24, BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of approximately $2.84 billion over six days; ETH products have a cumulative net inflow of about $747 million over five days. ZEC is supported by both product inflows and upgrade expectations: US ZEC products had a net inflow of about $35.17 million this week; last week, shielded transactions reached 62,379, and the current price remains approximately 24.63% higher than the opening price on September 16. The next critical milestone is the NU7 upgrade. ZEC plans to complete the version by September 30, enter the testnet on October 6, and decide the mainnet activation height on October 20; November 5 is only a target date. If BTC maintains oscillation above $83,000, ZEC can continue to test the $1,625-$1,680 range; if positions and funding rates continue to rise before the testnet but the spot price fails to break $1,625, the chasing bulls will become active sellers during pullbacks.

$ENA rises 17%, USDe begins expanding basis trading to US stocks According to current OKX data, spot $ENA is quoted at $0.25559, up 16.72% in 24 hours, while BTC fell 0.64% in the same period. The price movement roughly coincides with Ethena's announcement of a new collateral strategy. Ethena plans to buy bStocks on Binance as USDe spot collateral, while shorting the corresponding stock perpetuals to earn funding rates and basis. The risk committee framework has been approved, with USDe supply around $4.9 billion. The value of this expansion is not in the "stocks on-chain" narrative, but in adding a source of income for USDe that has lower correlation with crypto funding rates. If the stock perpetuals have sufficient depth, stable basis, and hedge execution, USDe can reduce income volatility when crypto funding rates decline. If market liquidity is insufficient or spot and perpetual tracking diverge, the new collateral could increase trading, custody, and basis risks. There is still a threshold on the token side: although the ENA buyback mechanism has been voted through, the first phase requires USDe's 14-day average supply to reach $7.5 billion. Based on the current official website figure of about $5.4 billion, it still needs to grow by about 39%. The current rise first trades on expectations of income expansion; the real follow-through depends on USDe supply, non-crypto basis income, and whether the buyback triggers. In trading, first watch for exchange deposits, approved sales, or OTC transfers, then see if USDe supply can continue to increase.

ETF is still buying, but $BTC has not followed the inflow speed to continue rising. According to OKX market data, $BTC is currently quoted at $84,166, up 0.41% in 24 hours, down about 3.7% from this week's high of $87,399. ETH is quoted at $2,702, up 1.49%. The US BTC spot ETF has had net inflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.061 billion from Monday to Wednesday, and another $191 million on Thursday. The buying scale is not small, but daily inflows have dropped from $999 million to $715 million, $347 million, and $191 million, with marginal speed continuously declining. On the other hand, the US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.2% intraday, so the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets remains high. On-chain medium-sized addresses have increased by about 113,950 BTC since July 15, but this statistic mixes custodial and exchange addresses, so it cannot all be regarded as new buying. Currently, stronger evidence is the continuous subscription of ETFs, while the weaker link is price feedback. There is another market-impacting event: Bitget was attacked, affecting some hot and warm wallets, while cold wallets were not affected. The current loss has reached over 350 million, and withdrawals are still suspended. If this triggers users to actively withdraw from centralized exchanges, it will reduce platform liquidity and amplify market volatility. The next step is to see if ETF inflows can recover to the scale of hundreds of millions of dollars and drive spot trading expansion. If inflows continue to decline, sustained selling pressure will still limit the upside.

$ONDO rises 27%, market prices "strategy on-chain" As of now, OKX spot ONDO is quoted at $0.5482, up 27.34% in 24 hours. During the same period, BTC and ETH slightly declined; the rise is concentrated after Ondo announced Intelligent Portfolios, showing distinct independent market characteristics. The first batch of BLKHIon, BLKDIGon, and BLKGRWon package yield, balanced growth, and high growth allocations into a single token. Underlying holdings, weights, and periodic rebalancing can be viewed on-chain and can be transferred or integrated into DeFi. The product form of RWA has evolved from "single security on-chain" to "asset allocation on-chain," but the demand scale has yet to be verified. BlackRock only provides non-discretionary model strategies and is not responsible for issuance, management, or operation. The product is executed by Ondo and is only available to qualified non-U.S. investors in approved regions. More importantly, ONDO currently mainly serves a governance function; subscriptions and fees for new portfolios do not automatically flow to token holders. Subsequent focus should be on the net minting volume of the three portfolios, number of holders, DeFi collateral integration, and redemption depth. If these indicators do not grow, the 27% increase is merely the capital market trading the RWA narrative in advance.

Rate hikes are not scary; the real pressure point for $BTC is the interruption of ETF inflows. The Federal Reserve has raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, and CME data shows the probability of another hike in October once reached 73%. Paulson stated that inflation progress is insufficient, and moderate further tightening may still be necessary. The market has already shown two reactions in advance. On one side, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5.1%, the dollar strengthened, and BTC retreated from this week's high of $87,399. On the other side, US spot ETFs had net inflows of about $999 million and $715 million on September 21 and 22 respectively, absorbing a large amount of spot supply. Strategy added 950 BTC, about $75.7 million in scale, far less than the daily ETF flow, unable to influence or change the macro direction. Currently, OKX spot BTC is about $84,258. Next, we should observe the continuity of inflows rather than debate whether BTC has decoupled from interest rates. If ETFs maintain net subscriptions at the hundreds of millions of dollars level, even with further rate hikes, spot supply may still be absorbed. If inflows shrink to about $32.4 million as on September 23, while yields continue to rise, institutional buying will struggle to offset the opportunity cost of holding coins and risk asset deleveraging. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？

The $ZEC institutional gateway has opened, and continuous buying requires AUM proof. On the morning of September 25, OKX spot $ZEC was quoted at $1,554.69, up 3.24% in 24 hours, and approximately 97% up in the past 30 days. Perpetual positions are about $168 million, and the funding rate remains positive. In the past week, it only rose about 4.9%, with the price entering high volatility turnover after falling back from the September 23 high of $1,680. On September 22, 21Shares listed a physically-backed Zcash ETP on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, with a 2.5% annual fee, and the underlying ZEC is held by a custodian. This adds a compliant gateway for European brokerage accounts, but product listing only means it can be bought. Subsequent changes in AUM and shares will show whether there is real incremental demand. Ledger has also natively integrated shielded balances into its desktop wallet, lowering the usage threshold for private assets. On-chain data: Last week, shielded transactions increased to 62,379, with the shielded pool holding about 4.91 million ZEC. The visible circulating supply of these coins has decreased. If the ETP scale does not grow but the price surges again amid rising positions, the main drivers may be high-leverage long holders, and a pullback would trigger concentrated liquidations. If AUM, shielded transactions, and spot trading increase simultaneously, the institutional gateway truly converts into buying pressure.

Ancient coins relay abnormal movements, is the capital rotating or is the market entering the final stage? On the evening of September 24, OKX spot $LTC was quoted at $73.87, up 23.22% in 24 hours. $ETC was quoted at $10.19, up 15.57%. $DASH also rose 6.95%. While BTC slightly fell by 0.06%. In the past few days, BCH surged about 30% in a single day due to CME's plan to launch futures and Grayscale ETF conversion applications on October 19. In the past seven days, BCH, LTC, and ETC have risen approximately 46%, 38%, and 37%, respectively. This round is not all old coins relying on the same news. BCH was catalyzed by institutional trading channels, LTC's trading volume and futures open interest expanded simultaneously, and ETC was driven by the supply narrative after the block reward reduction in July. The common point is that after BTC surged and then consolidated, capital began to seek undervalued, reasonably liquid, and easily consensus-driven legacy assets. Regarding the "doomsday chariot" ETC, the market views it as a "contrarian indicator" at the end of a bull market: after the new narrative is played out, capital then rotates to older coins with weaker ecosystem activity and higher elasticity. If BTC stabilizes subsequently and old coin spot trading continues to spread, this is a horizontal rotation of risk appetite. If BTC weakens but old coin leverage continues to increase, this round of catch-up rally may have entered a high-level chasing phase, and a pullback could easily trigger a chain of liquidations.

Two earnings reports, two clues on risk appetite: US consumption and AI capital expenditure Costco has disclosed Q4 net sales of $93.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%; comparable sales grew 9.4%, and excluding gasoline and exchange rates, 6.7%. New information as of the early hours of September 25 focuses on membership and profits: last quarter, the US and Canada renewal rate was 92.2%, global was 89.7%, and membership fee revenue grew 10.7%; if renewal rates remain stable and gross margin improves excluding gasoline, consumption resilience will be more fully validated. But this is not a one-sided positive for Crypto. Strong consumption, if it raises growth and interest rate expectations, could instead push up US Treasury yields, suppressing $BTC. Profit growth mainly comes from membership stickiness rather than overheated demand, so the impact will be much milder. The next clock is Micron's earnings report at Beijing time early October 1, with official guidance of revenue $50 billion, gross margin about 86%, non-GAAP EPS $31. Costco decides the interest rate narrative, $MU Micron verifies AI risk appetite. Currently, OKX's BTC is about $83,484, down 2.41% in 24 hours; yields remain more sensitive than any single company's earnings.