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$SUI started to surge, but supply pressure in October is also coming As of 1 PM on September 26, OKX spot $SUI was quoted at $1.1602, up 14.83% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of $1.2172; perpetual positions were about $43.01 million, and the funding rate was positive. This round of rally has verifiable product catalysts: DeepBook App launched on September 24, integrating spot and short-cycle Predict, with the underlying shared order book processing over $20 billion cumulatively. Bitwise tokenized RWA has also started entering the Bluefin Lend collateral scenario. The next event point is the token release in early October. Approximately from September 30 to October 3, the release scale ranges from about 2.07 million to 25.8 million SUI. The official page only provides an estimated curve and clearly states that the release pace will be adjusted according to the foundation's deployment. Verifiable trading indicators include changes in on-chain circulation, whether related addresses transfer to exchanges, and whether the spot market can absorb the new supply. Meanwhile, AlphaFi exited Sui due to bad debt caused by oracle configuration errors, and users are withdrawing funds from related strategies. If the exchange balance does not increase significantly before the unlock, and DeepBook trading continues to expand, the supply impact may be limited. If a large amount of tokens enter the market and contract longs continue to add positions, spot selling pressure and concentrated liquidations will simultaneously amplify the pullback.