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Rate hikes are not scary; the real pressure point for $BTC is the interruption of ETF inflows. The Federal Reserve has raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, and CME data shows the probability of another hike in October once reached 73%. Paulson stated that inflation progress is insufficient, and moderate further tightening may still be necessary. The market has already shown two reactions in advance. On one side, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5.1%, the dollar strengthened, and BTC retreated from this week's high of $87,399. On the other side, US spot ETFs had net inflows of about $999 million and $715 million on September 21 and 22 respectively, absorbing a large amount of spot supply. Strategy added 950 BTC, about $75.7 million in scale, far less than the daily ETF flow, unable to influence or change the macro direction. Currently, OKX spot BTC is about $84,258. Next, we should observe the continuity of inflows rather than debate whether BTC has decoupled from interest rates. If ETFs maintain net subscriptions at the hundreds of millions of dollars level, even with further rate hikes, spot supply may still be absorbed. If inflows shrink to about $32.4 million as on September 23, while yields continue to rise, institutional buying will struggle to offset the opportunity cost of holding coins and risk asset deleveraging. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？