#GlobalRatesStayHigh

#GlobalRatesStayHigh The rate-cut story is getting harder to tell 👀 BOJ just hiked to 1.25%, while 3 BOE members wanted an immediate hike. Yet the yen still weakened past 157 as Japan's move was largely priced in. What caught my attention is the cross-market risk. More BOJ tightening could make yen-funded carry trades less attractive just as global borrowing costs stay high. That combination could pressure long bonds, expensive stocks and BTC at the same time.

Japan's hike matters less for its headline level than for what the yen did next. A 25bp move to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, still left the yen weaker past 157 per dollar because markets had priced it in. With the BOE split 6-3 at 3.75%, the signal is that tighter policy may persist without delivering immediate currency strength. If BOJ tightening surprises later, carry trades look more vulnerable than they do today. #GlobalRatesStayHigh

#美联储10月再加息概率破55% Why Doesn't the Crypto Market Fall on 'Bad News'? The latest CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in October has risen to 55.4%. For the crypto market, this should have been a heavy blow—rising interest rates mean the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets like Bitcoin increases further. However, the market's actual reaction is intriguing.

#美联储10月再加息概率破55% Another 25bps hike in October? The knife is already hanging! 😱 Sept 16: Fed hiked to 3.75%–4.00%, breaking a 3-year pause. Market thought it was over, but futures now price ~55% chance of another hike in October. Chance of no move by December down to ~10%. Translation: High probability of tightening the tap again this year, maybe even twice. Fed rarely stops after just one move — dot plot already shows most officials locking in another hike this year. Some brokerages expec

🚨JAPAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE A DECISION THAT COULD MOVE TRILLIONS ACROSS GLOBAL MARKETS The BoJ is expected to hike rates from 1% to 1.25% today, while US rates remain at 3.75%-4%. Even after the hike, the gap remains more than 2.5 percentage points. That gap has helped fuel the yen carry trade - borrowing cheaply in Japan and moving capital into higher yielding assets abroad. Japan can narrow the gap, but closing it is much harder. Government debt is above 200% of GDP, while Japan's 10-year yield has surged to around 3%, its highest level in roughly 30 years. Japan's interest expenses have already more than doubled over the last 4 years. The average yield on existing government debt is still around 1%, meaning refinancing more debt near current market rates could push interest costs significantly higher over time. This leaves the BoJ trapped between fighting inflation and controlling the growing cost of Japan's debt. The yen has already strengthened sharply from around 164 per dollar since late July. A surprise 50 bps or hawkish signal hike could trigger another sharp yen move and pressure risk assets. But even at 1.5%, the US-Japan rate gap would remain above 2 percentage points. Japan's inflation also came in lower than expected today, reducing pressure on the BoJ to raise rates aggressively.

Bank of England goes it alone as rates left on hold: Bailey hints at November hike as inflation pressures build

🇺🇸 The 10 year Treasury breached 5% for the first time since 2007. Washington spent the last month trying to push long rates down while short rates rose. David Lin breaks down what just went wrong with that plan. The long end kept climbing anyway, and now the Fed is lifting the short end too. Only about 17% of federal debt sits in the 10 to 30 year range, so the long end alone was survivable. Both ends rising at once means nearly every security type gets more expensive, and that bill compounds quietly until it doesn't. @davidlin_TV

10-YEAR JGB YIELD DECLINES TO 2.955%, DOWN 3.5 BPS

10-year JGB yield declines to 2.955%, down 3.5 bps