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$BTC daily chart level shows a bearish divergence in technical indicators, needing time to digest. The entire market is not suitable for "chasing highs" in the short term.
Killa has started building his own $BTC 10x long plan.
The first position is bought at the current price, the second position at 75584.17, the third position at 68417.89, and if it falls below 61956.82, all positions are stopped out.
This is also the main personal observation of key levels. If it breaks below 82K, the first range down is the 82K-75K consolidation zone; if it breaks again, the second range down is the 75K-68K consolidation zone. So far, it is still the early stage of the bull market.
Breaking below 62K is defined as a bull trap in the past two months. This possibility is very low.
Waiting for the long-term options to launch in September 2027, preparing to continue deploying LEAPS Calls.
Currently, the $BTC support at 82K is quite critical.
The long-term downtrend line on the daily chart has long been broken, confirming the end of the downtrend. The price is still above 82K, having broken through the horizontal resistance level and left the lower consolidation range, which should mark the beginning of an uptrend.
If the price falls back below 82K again, then the breakout of the horizontal level will be a "false breakout," and the market may return to consolidation, regrouping for the uptrend.
Unconsciously ended up with this kind of real trading data. It can be imagined that this data must belong to someone who often "holds positions".
The first wave of reversals for SNDK and SPCX was relatively successful personally. The second wave started shorting these two targets again around 1700-1800 and near 150, and has been holding positions for a long time. To avoid being hunted for liquidity by the market main force, the daily chart holds stop-loss at a stable level, and breaks new highs to stop loss. This kind of exit strategy makes me "stand firm" most of the time.
Many friends mentioned "your risk-reward ratio has issues," and my solution is: small positions aiming for a high win rate.
How to use options synthesis to create a short position? There is a strategy structure called "risk reversal," where I sell 1 BTC call option and simultaneously buy 1 BTC put option, without paying a premium, so that a market decline can protect the position's value. When I also hold the spot asset at the same time, the entire position strategy combination is called a "collar" strategy.
Advantages: The strike price of the sold option can be higher than the current price, providing greater tolerance. In the example, a loss will only definitely occur if the price exceeds 88K by the October expiration.
Disadvantages: The protection effect is slightly inferior to directly shorting the contract.
The recently constructed structure has already started to provide protection for the spot position.
After taking defensive actions, the current position sentiment has become relatively stable.
In the last week before the September delivery, if $BTC ultimately falls back below 82K, it indicates that these past two days were just dramatized. The real decision will have to wait until October to see.
Rounder
The last delivery week of September saw significant market volatility. Originally, it was expected that 88K would be reached in October, but it was already close by early this morning. To some extent, the gains were drawn forward prematurely.
The Clarity Act not passing actually led to a rise; in hindsight, this was because of SEC intervention, which indirectly provided a policy boost. President Xi's upcoming visit to the US also added fuel to the shared sentiment between stocks and crypto.
This sudden surge in September is actually not very good news for the fourth quarter.
The market surged and positive news was realized. Therefore, the plan is to first take phased profits on most altcoins, while buying some put options to protect $BTC and $ETH. Shifting from seeking Alpha to a more defensive stance.
The last delivery week of September saw significant market volatility. Originally, it was expected that 88K would be reached in October, but it was already close by early this morning. To some extent, the gains were drawn forward prematurely.
The Clarity Act not passing actually led to a rise; in hindsight, this was because of SEC intervention, which indirectly provided a policy boost. President Xi's upcoming visit to the US also added fuel to the shared sentiment between stocks and crypto.
This sudden surge in September is actually not very good news for the fourth quarter.
The market surged and positive news was realized. Therefore, the plan is to first take phased profits on most altcoins, while buying some put options to protect $BTC and $ETH. Shifting from seeking Alpha to a more defensive stance.
Today I did more digging into these relatively new VC coins, which reminded me of a term from the last bull market: American public chain.
$SUI is the American public chain, launched on OKX IEO, achieving over 10x gains from the lowest to the highest point during the last altcoin downturn, and it has the best fundamentals and history among many newly issued coins.
Rounder
In the last $BTC bull market, VC coins created a reverse altcoin season. High private placement valuations, low circulating supply upon listing, using BTC's rise as a cover to dump, dump, dump!
Many of them recovered chips at the bottom and may use the bull market for a second round of selling (or possibly to prove their value).
1. SUI: Public chain, mainnet launched in May 2023, Mysten Labs, with participation from a16z and Jump.
2. SEI: Public chain, mainnet launched in August 2023, often confused with SUI.
3. TIA: DeFi modular product, launched in October 2023, with Bain and Polychain involved.
4. WLD: AI sector, star-level nationwide iris airdrop, launched in July 2023, invested by a16z.
5. APT: Korean public chain, has had a good rally history, has been sluggish for a long time, Korean fans are expected to return.
6. EIGEN: ETH Restaking leader, back then Sun Ge entered with massive ETH to farm airdrops.
7. ENA: The project with the highest single-address airdrop amount back then, initially quite strategic; with rising funding rates in the bull market, logically this helps generate demand for ENA.
8. JUP: Equivalent to Uniswap on SOL, JLP forms an ETF product that can earn the entire DEX revenue set, quite innovative.
In trading, it's best to have a clear viewpoint and use moderate position management.
Currently, my personal subjective expectation is that BTC will mainly undergo adjustments in September. The main reason is that major players usually don't make big moves at the end of a quarter, which has been a high-probability event since the inception of delivery contracts.
The next 10 days are a good opportunity to add positions across the entire crypto market. After the September delivery ends, major players may start to act, directly pushing the price into a new range: 82K-100K.
If wrong, moderate position management provides bullets for adding positions and the confidence to hold steadily. The bull market has already started; even if wrong, the loss won't be significant.
In the last $BTC bull market, VC coins created a reverse altcoin season. High private placement valuations, low circulating supply upon listing, using BTC's rise as a cover to dump, dump, dump!
Many of them recovered chips at the bottom and may use the bull market for a second round of selling (or possibly to prove their value).
1. SUI: Public chain, mainnet launched in May 2023, Mysten Labs, with participation from a16z and Jump.
2. SEI: Public chain, mainnet launched in August 2023, often confused with SUI.
3. TIA: DeFi modular product, launched in October 2023, with Bain and Polychain involved.
4. WLD: AI sector, star-level nationwide iris airdrop, launched in July 2023, invested by a16z.
5. APT: Korean public chain, has had a good rally history, has been sluggish for a long time, Korean fans are expected to return.
6. EIGEN: ETH Restaking leader, back then Sun Ge entered with massive ETH to farm airdrops.
7. ENA: The project with the highest single-address airdrop amount back then, initially quite strategic; with rising funding rates in the bull market, logically this helps generate demand for ENA.
8. JUP: Equivalent to Uniswap on SOL, JLP forms an ETF product that can earn the entire DEX revenue set, quite innovative.
