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Lately, I've been a bit off in my market focus. I used to keep my eyes on $BTC all the time, but today I actually think $CL crude oil is more worth watching. There's an interesting development on the US-Iran front: Iran has proposed that if the US reduces military pressure and lifts the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 7 days; the market has already started pricing in this expectation. $WTI has fallen from nearly $96 a few days ago down to around $92 on Friday. But on the other hand, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia mean supply risks haven't truly disappeared. This is actually very critical for BTC. If oil continues to fall, the market's worries about "energy shock → inflation → higher interest rates" will ease a bit, and risk assets will naturally feel more comfortable; but if the Strait of Hormuz runs into trouble again and oil prices get pushed back up, high-volatility assets like BTC will likely face another round of pressure. BTC dropped from around 87,200 to about 82,900 a few days ago, then recovered yesterday, and is still hovering around 84,000. At this level, going long or short is easy to get slapped. I've now set a very simple observation for myself: first see if CL can continue to hold down, then see if BTC can stabilize above 84,000. If oil falls and BTC holds steady, risk appetite can be said to have truly returned; if oil suddenly rallies again while BTC is still grinding near 84,000, I'd rather trade less than take positions to bet on the next piece of news. My biggest takeaway these days is: when trading news, don't just look at the headlines; see if the headlines actually move the price.