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$FIL 5. Capital preference determines the market ceiling
In the crypto bull market, capital prefers small-cap, simple narrative targets that are easy to pump quickly. FIL has a large market cap and a complex narrative, requiring understanding of staking, proofs, NV29, and storage deals, which ordinary speculative funds are unwilling to study deeply. Each rebound is only a short-term thematic speculation; once the speculation ends, funds quickly withdraw, leaving a long-term downtrend.
The FILG Grayscale trust premium is just overseas capital sentiment, not equivalent to business implementation. When sentiment fades, it will discount, bringing spot selling pressure.
6. The six-year long-term trend has already validated market attitude
Six years of continuous decline, countless positive upgrades (FVM, NV29, storage ecosystem), have only brought short-term rebounds and cannot reverse the long-term trend. Repeated unmet expectations have continuously eroded market confidence, and faith-based funds keep exiting.
Even if there is a short-term pulse rebound, it is just a rebound, not a reversal, making it difficult to return to the big market everyone expects.
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