Post

$FIL 1. Massive computing power, but real paid orders lag behind in the long term The total network storage capacity looks huge, but the vast majority of it consists of verification data filled by miners in the past to mine FIL, not enterprise paid business. The simulator assumes a daily increase of 35 PiB in real paid storage with an 80% renewal rate, which is an extremely idealized assumption. In reality, enterprises have many cold storage options: tape libraries, centralized cloud archiving, AR, and the cost of customer migration is low, making it difficult to sustain large-scale migration to Filecoin. Without real paid orders, the logic of staking lock-up and token net deflation cannot be realized. 2. Historical stock chips are permanent shackles, selling pressure always exists Years of linear unlocking have left a massive stock of chips with early VCs and large SP miners. Even if incremental deflation occurs in the future, meaning fewer new tokens daily, the stock of trapped chips will not disappear. Whenever there is a price rebound, old miners and early investors will cash out collectively, and every round of price increase will be interrupted by selling pressure, making it difficult to sustain a continuous main rise. FIL has no single dominant holder; chips are extremely dispersed, and no capital is willing to pay a huge price to free the historically trapped positions.