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潮有信
潮有信
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The 30-year US Treasury yield has broken through 5.5%, which is a bit outrageous at this level now. First of all, the 30-year term represents the long-term cost of capital. The higher the yield goes, the more the market is willing to lend money to the government long-term, and the higher the required return, which directly raises the valuation threshold for the entire market. For US stocks, the greatest pressure is still on high valuations and high Beta. Because when long-term government bonds can yield 5%+, there is no need for capital to take on so much risk just for returns. A key condition for the tech stock rebound a few days ago was the decline in long-end interest rates and oil prices, combined with short covering. Now that the 30Y yield has surged back above 5.5%, this support is moving in the opposite direction. Unless corporate earnings can continue to hold up, the market may have to compress valuations while relying on profits to absorb the pressure. The more troublesome scenario is if rates continue to rise and earnings forecasts start to be revised downward, which means both valuations and earnings will be hit. The crypto space is the same. The higher the long-end rates, the more attractive cash and government bonds become, raising the opportunity cost of risk assets. BTC can still hold up somewhat thanks to ETFs and institutional allocations, but high Beta altcoins will suffer more.

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