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天才交易员鸡毛
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🔥The Federal Reserve has resumed rate hikes, and $BTC has withstood the impact. The core reason: negative factors were priced in advance, and the underlying buying has already changed hands.
Before the rate hike, futures pricing showed a 90% probability. Now that the boot has dropped, shorts are covering to digest the panic. The key is the capital structure: long-term slow money like ETFs, pensions, and corporate treasuries are taking over, not fluctuating with each FOMC meeting; fragile leveraged positions were cleared long ago, so the reaction to a single 25bp hike is minimal.
For the mid-term, watch three indicators: ETF net inflows, stablecoin supply, and the 5% threshold on 10-year U.S. Treasuries. A single rate hike is not scary; the real big risk is a triple threat of continuous hikes + strong dollar + balance sheet reduction.
BTC is not immune to interest rates; institutional base positions are hedging against tightening. Currently, it’s a range-bound shakeout and accumulation at the top—don’t mistake resilience for a full bull market.
👉Will there be a tightening combo punch next? Share your thoughts!
$BTC
⚠️Market observation only, not investment advice #美联储重启加息,BTC为何仍有韧性?
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