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佳佳跟着绿毛做交易
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Sisters, I don't care anymore!
With ETH rebounding this time, I added to my short position. I believe my analysis won't be wrong!
Look at this market: $ETH has dropped all the way down from the high of 2806, now rebounding back to 2714, which looks quite strong.
But in my eyes, this rebound is just a setup for a short.
SAR is holding at 2677, MACD has a golden cross, but from 2720 to 2750 above are all trapped positions; every rebound is a bull trap.
Why do I dare to add to my short position at this level?
Because all the bearish signals are piling up.
First, the options market is suppressing the price.
Greeks.live data shows the ETH put/call ratio is as high as 0.67, with the maximum pain point pinned at $2380.
What does this mean?
It means market makers have a huge incentive to push the price down near 2380 to profit from their option positions.
What is 2380? It's a full $330 below the current price of 2714.
Second, smart money is exiting.
On-chain snapshots from Hyperliquid and Nansen show that ETH smart money positions are net short, with shorts accounting for 53.9%, and longs dropping sharply by 13.1 percentage points compared to yesterday.
After the previous leveraged long surge failed, they have been slowly closing positions.
Big players are withdrawing, while retail is still chasing.
Third, ETF funds are continuously flowing out.
Ethereum spot ETFs have had net outflows for four consecutive days; yesterday alone saw $251 million outflow, with Fidelity's FETH accounting for $158 million.
Institutions are voting with real money.
Fourth, whales are transferring coins to exchanges.
One whale address transferred a total of 6,000 ETH worth about $16.1 million to five exchanges including OKX, Kraken, Bybit, and Binance within an hour, likely preparing to sell.
When coins move to exchanges, it usually means a sell-off is coming.
Most importantly, if ETH falls below $2576, the cumulative long liquidation pressure on major exchanges will reach $1.154 billion.
$1.154 billion longs are just waiting to be liquidated below 2576.
This is why I dare to short: options pressure above, massive long positions waiting to be liquidated below.
My full-position short average price is 2715, isolated short average price is 2379, current mark price is 2716, floating loss still exists, but I'm not worried at all.
For sisters wanting to short, around 2714 is a good point to enter a light short position, stop loss above 2820, target first at 2600, and if it breaks 2576, then head to 2500.
I'll keep holding my short positions and fight this battle to the end.
The short army leader never gives up, tonight I'll keep eating fold-ear herb!
$BTC
$ZEC
#美联储重启加息,BTC为何仍有韧性?


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