Lately, I've been a bit off in my market focus. I used to keep my eyes on $BTC all the time, but today I actually think $CL crude oil is more worth watching. There's an interesting development on the US-Iran front: Iran has proposed that if the US reduces military pressure and lifts the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 7 days; the market has already started pricing in this expectation. $WTI has fallen from nearly $96 a few days ago down to around $92 on Friday. But on the other hand, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia mean supply risks haven't truly disappeared. This is actually very critical for BTC. If oil continues to fall, the market's worries about "energy shock → inflation → higher interest rates" will ease a bit, and risk assets will naturally feel more comfortable; but if the Strait of Hormuz runs into trouble again and oil prices get pushed back up, high-volatility assets like BTC will likely face another round of pressure. BTC dropped from around 87,200 to about 82,900 a few days ago, then recovered yesterday, and is still hovering around 84,000. At this level, going long or short is easy to get slapped. I've now set a very simple observation for myself: first see if CL can continue to hold down, then see if BTC can stabilize above 84,000. If oil falls and BTC holds steady, risk appetite can be said to have truly returned; if oil suddenly rallies again while BTC is still grinding near 84,000, I'd rather trade less than take positions to bet on the next piece of news. My biggest takeaway these days is: when trading news, don't just look at the headlines; see if the headlines actually move the price.

Yesterday, I was actually waiting for $BTC to give me an opportunity around 81800, placing an order there, but it didn't get filled. Later, the market really dropped, hitting a low of 82812, which was only about a thousand points away from my price. At that moment, I felt a bit regretful, thinking I missed another "buy the dip" opportunity. But looking back today, I actually think it’s not a bad thing that the order didn’t fill. Because the market didn’t continue to drop; instead, it recovered from 82800 all the way back up, now around 84800. The 1-hour BOLL middle band has already reached 84129, with resistance first seen near 85000, and above that is the previous high zone around 86600-87000. This kind of market easily makes people regret: when you don’t buy, you feel like you missed out, and when it rises back, you can’t help but chase. So this time, I’m holding back. If the 81800 order didn’t fill, it didn’t fill; you don’t have to participate in every trade. Sometimes, the money you didn’t make and the money you didn’t lose are essentially not the same thing.

Just got hit again. Seeing $BTC break below 84000, I couldn't resist chasing a short, but the lowest it hit was 83707, then it quickly pulled back above 84200. Now the short position is directly stuck. The most ironic part is: when I saw it break below 84000, I thought in my head, "Support is broken, there should be more downside," but the market only gave me a few hundred points of room before starting to recover. Right now, the 15-minute BOLL middle band is around 84300, the lower band near 83980, and that recent drop clearly came with increased volume. I won't stubbornly hold this trade or add to my position to average down. This reminds me of an old problem again: breaking support ≠ trend confirmation; often it's just a trap to lure in those chasing shorts first. The hardest part of trading isn't finding opportunities, but not rushing to prove yourself right after being wrong.

What I find most interesting about this wave is not "BTC surging to 87,000, total market cap returning to 3 trillion," but how the market reacts after the surge. From the chart, BTC quickly fell back after reaching 87,245, hitting a low of 83,439, and now has rebounded to around 84,300. In other words, the news looks hot, but the market has already given a stress test. I separate "large ETF inflows" from "price continuing to rise." Funds are indeed coming in, but in the short term, there are options expirations, profit-taking after the surge, and short covering all overlapping, which tends to amplify volatility. If it were me now, I wouldn’t rush to short around 84,000, since we just experienced a rapid drop; but I also wouldn’t chase longs just because the total market cap has returned to 3 trillion. I want to wait for an answer: can 84,000 truly hold steady? If it holds, it means this pullback is just digestion; if it doesn’t, the surge to 87,000 needs to be redefined. In this market, the hype is real, and the funds are real, but when the money enters and whether it can push the price higher afterward are two different things. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿

Recently, $ZEC has been really strong, surging to around 1628 in 4 hours, +5.5% intraday, +30% in 7 days, and even more impressive +650% in 180 days. But now I'm actually hesitant to chase. Because $BTC has returned to around 85,000 in the past two days, and $ETH is also recovering, but ZEC's momentum is clearly much stronger than BTC and ETH. I've been burned by this kind of market before: seeing strength and chasing, only to have a single pullback wipe out the profits. Now I'd rather wait. If ZEC really has sustained capital inflow this time, we shouldn't just watch if it can break through 1628, but also see if there's support around 1500 on a pullback. The biggest fear for a strong coin isn't slow growth, but everyone thinking "it can still go up" and rushing in together. I'd rather earn less for a while than provide liquidity to the market again.

$SNDK I got in again this time, going long around 1742. To be honest, I'm not particularly comfortable with this position. The daily chart is now around 1789. Previously, it surged to 1842, then pulled back to around 1580, and has since rallied back. The price has now reclaimed the BOLL middle band above 1685, with the daily BOLL upper band near 1880 above. What I'm focusing on is not simply "SanDisk will rise," but the recent market expectations heating up again around Trump's midterm elections and technology and industrial policies. Funds are clearly willing to re-engage in high-volatility tech assets. So I'm willing to try at 1742, but I won't stubbornly hold on. If the previous high at 1842 is effectively broken, I'll continue to watch; if it falls back to around 1685, I'll rather exit. There's no need to turn a trial-and-error trade into a belief trade. Looking at $BTC, the contrast recently is quite obvious. A few days ago, it was hovering around 80,000; yesterday it surged directly to about 86,300, and now it's still around 86,000. The market's risk appetite is clearly stronger than last week, but I won't chase shorts here either. What I'm more concerned about now is: after BTC stabilizes above 86,000, can altcoins and tech assets truly take over? If the market rally is just BTC pulling hard on its own, I'll be more cautious with stocks like SanDisk; if funds start to spread out, then this move in SNDK becomes interesting. For the 1742 position, I'll hold and watch first; if uncomfortable, I'll exit.

#加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 There has been a change in the market these past two days that I think is more worth watching than how much BTC has risen. The total crypto market cap has returned to around $2.8 trillion, and this time it's not just $BTC pulling it up; $HYPE, $ZEC, $NEAR, $AVAX, $ETH, and $XRP are all starting to see capital flow in. This indicates that at least for now, funds are not all holding onto BTC without moving; risk appetite is spreading deeper into the market. A few days ago, I closed a BTC short near 76,400 at breakeven. Looking back now, if I had held on, I might have turned a profitable trade into a loss. Right now, I'm actually more concerned about the Trump midterm election angle. The crypto bill was blocked in the Senate, and the market has started trading on regulatory expectations, strategic BTC reserves, and policy expectations brought by the midterm elections. The crypto industry has even begun to clearly participate in election funding battles. So for this current market, I dare not simply interpret "policy benefits = continued rise." What’s really worth observing is: when BTC moves up, can funds outside of BTC continue to stay? If the total market cap is only supported by BTC alone, there’s nothing to get excited about; but if altcoins, DeFi, and exchange-related assets start to consistently take over, that would indicate that this round of risk appetite might really have changed. I'm not in a hurry to guess the top now; I’m first watching whether capital continues to spread.

When $BTC dropped back to around 80,000 yesterday, I actually had the urge to open a short position. But in the end, I held back. The reason is simple: there had already been a wide-range consolidation, and around 80,000 is clearly a support level. At this point, betting on a breakdown just to make the short look "reasonable" seemed unnecessary to me. As a result, the lowest point last night touched around 80,100, then it pulled back all the way up, now back above 81,400. This basically aligns with my market judgment from yesterday: the consolidation is not over yet. Currently, the 15-minute BOLL middle band is at 81,095, the upper band at 81,427, which just happens to be a short-term resistance area. Above that, there is previous high resistance near 81,600, while 80,800 and 80,100 below are supports I will continue to watch. So I’m still not in a hurry to chase. Not opening a short yesterday and missing a profit is nothing; but if I had opened a short on impulse and the market reversed upward, that would have been really painful. Trading is sometimes not about "seizing every opportunity," but knowing which opportunities are actually not worth taking. Being able to hold back is also part of trading.

The most interesting thing about $SNDK is not that it has risen again, but that it has brought the lesson from my previous loss right back in front of me. I previously shorted near 1688, but was pushed up all the way to around 1800, and finally accepted the loss and exited. Looking back now, my biggest mistake wasn’t the wrong direction, but using "it’s risen too much" as a reason to short. Now $SNDK has reached around 1780, and the 1-hour chart clearly shows: it was pulled from 1606 all the way to 1799, then there was no deep pullback, instead it consolidated around 1780. The BOLL is also narrowing, indicating the short term is waiting for the next volume surge to choose a direction. The news is even more interesting: $SNDK just announced FY26 revenue of $8.97 billion, a quarter-on-quarter surge of 51%, with data center business growing 437% for the year, and the company expects next quarter revenue to still be between $10.3–10.8 billion. Even more exciting, on September 18, $SNDK rose about 11% in a single day. The market logic for it is no longer just the "AI concept," but the chain of AI data centers → storage demand → NAND prices → earnings realization. So this time I dare not short just because "1800 is high." The previous high at 1799 is resistance, and around 1780 is now the dividing line between bulls and bears. After being taught a lesson by $SNDK once, my biggest change now is: whether it’s expensive or not is not a reason to short; the real reason is when the trend breaks down.

The hardest part this time isn't that BTC dropped, but that I once again saw the opportunity correctly but didn't increase my position. Earlier, I was watching the support zone between 75,600 and 74,900. BTC hit a low near 74,896 and then immediately bounced back sharply. Now it has climbed back above 81,100. By the time I realized it, it was no longer about "bottom fishing" but about whether to chase the price. More importantly, there have been clear changes in the news these past two days: although the Fed just raised interest rates and the CLARITY Act didn't pass, the market didn't continue to crash; instead, the SEC relaxed restrictions on tokenized stock trading, the CFTC is advancing crypto market regulations, and with oil prices falling, BTC has reclaimed the 80,000 level. The current market situation is awkward: around 81,600 is the first resistance level I marked on my chart, with a previous high at 82,280. If I chase in now, the risk-reward ratio isn't as comfortable as a few days ago; if I don't, I can only watch the candlesticks move higher. So this time, I'm not pretending to "precisely bottom fish." Missing out is just missing out. The worst thing in trading isn't not making money, but rushing to prove yourself after missing out. Right now, I'm waiting for two levels: whether 81,600 can truly hold, or whether a pullback near 78,400 can be caught. If I miss this wave, so be it. There is plenty of money in the market; there's no need to force this one trade. $BTC