Good morning, the altcoin sector collectively stirred up 📈 This wave of small coins has surged quite fiercely, here are a few highlights: 🔥 SEI leads, up 17.4% in 24h, now $0.0742 🔥 SUI closely follows with +15.3%, at $1.187 🚀 OP up 9.8%, $0.145 🚀 APT up 7.3%, $0.874 🚀 NEAR up 6.4%, $4.94 The rest, ARB (+5.0%, $0.2275) and UNI (+5.3%, $9.64), are also quietly moving up. The broad altcoin rally indicates market sentiment is warming up, but large gains come with high volatility. Those chasing highs should be cautious of risks and not just go all in because of the gains.

$ZEC ZEC massive correction, is there hope to unwind short positions? After ZEC surged to 1573 yesterday, it started a continuous pullback and has now reached a critical level. From a technical perspective: Bollinger Bands are parallel, showing a typical range-bound oscillation. It has now reached the lower edge of the range; if volume-driven break below 1420 occurs, further decline is expected. From the liquidation layer perspective: The short liquidations above are far away, making it difficult to trigger a short squeeze in the short term. Instead, there is a huge liquidation at the 1385 level below. Unwinding strategy: If it continues to hold above 1420, consider locking positions and offsetting some losses with long positions. If volume-driven break below 1420 happens, consider adding to short positions and building partial positions near 1385.

Still treating #ENA as just an ordinary high FDV mining coin? Your information is at least two months outdated. Over the past two years, the only reason everyone hesitated to heavily invest in ENA was the endless monthly VC unlocks. No matter how strong the fundamentals, it couldn't withstand the massive monthly sell pressure from unlocked tokens. But what if the VC unlocks were canceled, and 95% of the protocol's net income was directly used for programmatic buybacks of ENA on the secondary market? When an inflationary “sell pressure machine” is directly restructured into a deflationary “asset pumping machine,” the vast majority of retail investors still view it with old pessimistic eyes. This is the cognitive gap between extremely impatient capital and extremely patient capital.

😳 Folks, the Fed just finished raising rates, and BTC didn't crash but actually rallied? Last Wednesday, the Fed did something big — it raised rates by 25 basis points for the first time in over three years, pushing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot was even more hawkish: 16 out of 18 officials think there will be more hikes this year. That’s a pretty hawkish signal, right? So what happened? BTC was trembling around 75K last week, but in the past two days it surged straight up. You read that right, from 75,000 all the way to 85,000, short sellers got crushed, with billions liquidated across the network in 24 hours, mostly shorts. What’s the logic? Bad news is priced in? Before, the market feared "rapid consecutive hikes," but now it’s distinguishing between "hawkish but predictable" and "hawkish with uncertain path" — in plain terms, people aren’t afraid of rate hikes, they’re afraid of not knowing how far rates will go. The probability of a hike in October has jumped from 42.5% to 55%, and the market feels more confident. The real suspense is oil prices. Brent crude is still hovering around $100/barrel, and the Fed’s own forecasts show the 2026 PCE inflation expectation raised to 3.7%, meaning the 2% target might not be reached until 2029.

Has this round of rate hike bull market started? Altcoin trend market explosion! Those still doing swing trades have already started missing out on a large scale! Brothers, first put away the short-term mindset; this round of altcoin market has completely changed its flavor. Coins like $UNI, $ARB, $HYPE, NEAR are one after another showing a sustained upward trend. Those who can really hold are starting to profit, while those used to making a quick gain and running are repeatedly left behind. The bull market before last trained everyone into long-term holders, but the next round the big players went the opposite way, causing those who held stubbornly to lose so much they doubted their lives. The last round forced everyone into short-term trading, and now with the new market opening, anyone who still stubbornly holds just to make a quick profit will completely miss out. The underlying logic of each bull market is rewritten; those who blindly copy the previous round’s experience will always be the last batch to catch the bag.

Currently, there are only two types of coins suitable for entering positions in the market: First type: mainstream coins, no doubt about it. Second type: DEFI protocols and SWAPs with positive yields. So far, this has been validated; project teams won’t blindly dump tokens. Projects generate income, can sustain long-term yields, and won’t abruptly cut off. This is a steady, long-term business; project teams are not foolish! The coins that are least advisable to play with right now are other types of ecosystem coins, which can be described as worthless air tokens. When project teams run out of funds, they will dump tokens without limits, which is very dangerous. These are just stories without ecological support—air coins that must be avoided to prevent losses. Currently, we are in a rate-hiking phase, but the crypto market is behaving abnormally, suddenly entering a rally phase. It is necessary to stay alert for the emergence of black swan events, and position management must be in place!! Here are some on-chain projects with yields recommended: $AAVE $PENDLE #UNI $CAKE $RAY

Could there really be a rate hike bull market? $BTC Wall Street has already started trading the next rate hike! Goldman Sachs now expects another 25 basis points hike in October. The Fed just finished one hike, but the hawkish path isn't over yet! High interest rates may last longer than the market expects. Crypto will still have to endure rate pressure going forward! Goldman Sachs recently adjusted its October FOMC baseline forecast to another 25 basis points hike, mainly based on the Fed's latest hawkish short-term rate path. In other words, the market has just digested the September hike, and attention has quickly shifted to the next meeting; rate trading is not over. For BTC, the most important thing next is whether the October rate hike expectations will continue to heat up. If more institutions follow suit and raise forecasts, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will likely keep pressuring risk assets; conversely, if subsequent inflation or employment data cools rapidly, the market may cut back on this hawkish pricing. The September hike just finished, and the October rate hike expectations are already on the table.

If the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25bp tonight, the interest rate range will move to 3.75%–4.00%, with a midpoint of 3.875%. The Fed's June SEP median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.8%. In other words, if this rate hike is implemented, the policy rate will have roughly reached the level participants expected for the end of the year three months ago. The key point tonight is whether the Fed still thinks the current rate is high enough after the hike. The market pricing for a 25bp hike tonight is already close to 93%, meaning part of this has been priced in and digested by the market in advance. What’s more worth watching now are the new rate projections, the dot plot, and the statements from the Waugh press conference regarding the future rate path. If the future rate path does not show a clear further increase, this hike will look more like a policy adjustment in response to recent inflation pressures. But if the new rate projections continue to rise and leave more room for future hikes, the market will be repricing not just tonight’s 25bp but also the possibility of higher rates maintained for longer in the future.

Ten years ago, people in the crypto circle could buy very cheap Ethereum, Bitcoin, and some other high-value investment assets, but most, including the whales from back then, have been eliminated by the market along the way. Many people missed this round of HYPE and the previous round of SOL, both veterans and newcomers alike. More crazy projects will appear in the future. Whether a market produces major projects always depends on the market size. As the RWA and stablecoin markets continue to expand, and blockchain and traditional finance merge, at least a hundred projects could reach scales of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, and some underlying settlement layers might even reach the trillion-dollar level.

Yesterday BTC rose nearly 2 points, putting the bears under pressure again, currently stuck in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears!! Normally, with such a daily increase in BTC, the group chat would have exploded by now. But this time, the market is almost indifferent. Why? Because sentiment has already cooled down, the FNG index is at 57, well below last week's average of 63, and still declining. This divergence is very interesting — the price isn't falling and even slightly rising, but market sentiment is accelerating its cooling. The last time I saw this combination was in the second half of 2022. Back then, BTC repeatedly showed a "can't fall but can't rise" situation, oscillating for nearly four months before choosing a direction. Looking back, that was actually the phase when long-term funds were quietly accumulating. The current situation is more like that time. BTC has retraced about 38% from its high, landing right on the Fibonacci retracement level. Historical data shows this range is often the value zone where smart money starts to pay attention. But the problem is, sentiment hasn't fully cooled off yet, ETF funds are still net outflowing $ 463M, and institutions haven't stopped withdrawing. This creates a timing gap — the value zone has arrived, but market sentiment hasn't bottomed yet. Who does this timing gap affect? Short-term traders will suffer because they don't know how long the oscillation will last. But for those doing allocation, this zone is actually worth considering in batches. The key is to figure out what you're waiting for — waiting for sentiment to bottom, or waiting for the trend to reconfirm?