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诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
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The trend of $BTC is making me a bit nervous; I don't quite understand it! Yesterday saw the largest options expiry in history just settle, yet the market showed no volatility at all. Deribit's quarterly expiry yesterday had a notional value of $18.1 billion, a record high, wiping out nearly 40% of the entire BTC open interest at once. The settlement price was well above the pain point, so the long structure remains intact. But the positive gamma buffer is gone, so next week's order flow will be exposed. The good news is the chip position is solid: exchange BTC reserves have dropped to 2.7 million coins, the lowest since 2019; whale wallets have accumulated over 110,000 BTC in just over two months. The mid-term structure is bullish. The bad news is retail investors are also buying. Historically, before a bull market starts, "whales buy, retail sells." Now retail FOMO hasn't been cleared out, indicating sentiment reset is incomplete, so the breakout won't happen overnight. As long as it doesn't break below 83,000, I still believe there will be one more wave up before a pullback
BTCSpot
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Snapshot at Sep 26, 2026, 10:08

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