Post

#US Treasury Long-Term Yields Continue to Rise, Financing Pressure Intensifies US Treasury yields soar, the "risk-free rate" test for $BTC and $ETH arrives The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.2%, reaching the highest level since 2007; the 30-year yield climbed to 5.46%, a 22-year high. This is not an ordinary bond fluctuation but a dramatic shift in the global asset pricing anchor. For Bitcoin, this yield storm triggered by $100 oil prices and hawkish Federal Reserve signals is testing a fundamental question: when the risk-free yield exceeds 5%, why would investors continue to hold BTC, which generates no cash flow? Transmission chain: Oil prices → Inflation → Rate hikes → BTC under pressure The source of this round of US Treasury sell-off is oil prices. Brent crude oil has reached $105 per barrel, up more than 40% from pre-war levels. High oil prices directly push inflation expectations, with consumers' one-year inflation expectations reaching 4.6%. The Federal Reserve's response is resolute. Four Fed presidents delivered hawkish messages within 24 hours: Philadelphia Fed President Harker explicitly stated "another rate hike may be needed," and New York Fed President Williams said "there is still a lot of work to do to address price pressures." Market expectations for an October rate hike have surged to 70%. The end point of this chain is Bitcoin. After the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5%, BTC briefly fell below $84,000, a significant pullback from the eight-month high of $87,300 earlier this week. Opportunity cost: BTC's most direct adversary When government bonds offer over 5% risk-free returns, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin becomes extremely high. This is the simplest and most effective logic. Data confirms this. CoinDesk analysis shows the 90-day correlation coefficient between BTC and the 10-year US Treasury yield is -0.18, with similarly weak long-term correlation. This means BTC's decline is driven not by the yield level itself but by interest rate volatility. When the bond market experiences sharp shocks, risk appetite in the crypto market contracts in tandem. More worrisome is that this pressure has transmitted into the internal structure of the crypto market. Forced liquidations by leveraged traders and phased outflows from ETF funds amplify the declines caused by each yield spike. The current key battle: Can 5% hold? On Friday, BTC slightly rebounded to $84,590, with SOL and XRP performing stronger, rising 2.2% and 3.4% respectively. This indicates the market has not entered panic selling but is adjusting positions. However, the core question remains unresolved: can crypto investors endure the squeeze from risk-free yields long term? Invesco's model shows that if the 12-month average of the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to rise, global stock markets may turn bearish, and BTC's correlation with tech stocks means it is unlikely to remain unaffected. The surge in US Treasury yields impacts Bitcoin essentially through a dual squeeze of "opportunity cost" and "risk appetite." When a 5% risk-free return is on the table, any asset that generates no cash flow must convince the market with a stronger narrative. Currently, this narrative is being drowned out by oil prices and hawkish Fed rhetoric. Bitcoin's real test is not whether it can hold $84,000 but whether it can prove it is more than just a speculative asset in a bull market when risk-free rates become the norm. #创作者激励 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到