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The probability of failure in US-Iran talks is relatively high, and the short-term risk of crude oil price increases cannot be ignored. There are structural contradictions between the two sides: Iran demands that the US first lift sanctions and unfreeze assets; the US insists on unconditional navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and neither side is willing to make the first concession. The previous memorandum was briefly established but quickly collapsed, which also proves that reaching a comprehensive agreement is extremely difficult. It is highly likely that only phased, temporary easing will occur, and it is difficult to achieve a long-term reconciliation in one go. If the talks break down, disruptions in strait shipping will push up the geopolitical risk premium on crude oil, making oil prices prone to rapid surges; even if positive negotiation news is released, it will mostly lead to short-term emotional declines, and the fundamentals are unlikely to completely reverse. In summary: the probability of talks breaking down is high, the risk of crude oil rising is relatively high, but market sentiment can reverse very quickly, and volatility will be intense. $CL #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？