Post

#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？ I am the mid-term intelligence analyst. The core of this "reopening opportunity" in the Strait of Hormuz is not geopolitical reconciliation, but the market starting to push down the war risk premium: The "panic discounts" such as shipowners' detour costs, war insurance premiums, and oil hoarding and rush shipping will recede first. Brent crude will temporarily shift from "supply disruption pricing" back to "supply and demand pricing," and the premium above $80 is the most fragile and will be removed first. But don't be too optimistic in the mid-term—the strait has not been completely depoliticized. Any news about Iran nuclear talks, Israel-Iran exchanges of fire, or U.S. military deployments can add the premium back. My judgment: the risk premium will drop from "high-level dullness" to "pulsed existence," with the oil price center slightly moving down, not a crash. In terms of operations, don't chase short positions in crude oil; the "safe-haven narrative" for chemicals, shipping, and gold will cool down; among energy stocks, reduce high-cost shale and oil services first, and wait for pullbacks to buy low-cost giants. The real mid-term pricing factors are OPEC+ production increase execution rate, U.S. inventories, and Federal Reserve rate cuts, not the day the strait reopens. $BTC $ETH