Post

Federal Reserve officials keep delivering hawkish remarks one after another, and the market is still asking, "How long will the rate hikes continue?" To be honest, this question might be asked the wrong way. Currently, the Fed is not facing a single inflation factor. Energy prices, fiscal spending, AI data center investments, and stable employment together support demand. As long as the economy does not significantly slow down, officials have room to continue suppressing inflation. What truly determines policy won't be a preset month, but whether high interest rates have cooled demand, wages, and prices simultaneously. What's more troublesome is that if financial markets rally prematurely due to expectations that "rate hikes are ending soon," the wealth effect will stimulate consumption and financing, which in turn weakens the tightening effect. The more eager the market is to celebrate, the less reason the Fed has to ease early. I now prefer to treat high interest rates as an environment rather than a temporary weather event waiting to end. Companies must prove they can profit under expensive capital, and investors must readjust to cash yielding returns and valuations having gravity. This process won't suddenly disappear because of a single dovish statement. #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？