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$XAU Gold has not broken through the 4700 level for two days Currently, resistance around $4700 remains quite strong, with speculative positions relatively high Gold is very likely to enter a high-level consolidation in the short term, focusing on the 4700-4500 range Yesterday it did not break below the 5-day moving average, closed with a doji, showing clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with 4600 temporarily holding support. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the PCE data and Waller's speech Bull-bear divergence is increasing, with some funds taking profits and exiting However, if 4700 is not broken, a deeper correction is likely needed before a strong rebound can push prices further. If a correction occurs, focus on the 4500-4450 area as a buy zone; personally, if the bulls continue, the correction should not fall below this support level, as too deep a pullback is unfavorable for an uptrend. In the short term, be wary of repeated tug-of-war near 4700; the core principle now is to be bullish but not chase highs, and to strictly cut losses. The news remains mostly bullish Fidelity Fund increases gold holdings — a core bullish signal A Fidelity International fund manager has doubled gold holdings to the internal 5% limit over the past three weeks and indicated that if the dollar's safe-haven status continues to weaken, further increases to the limit are possible. The core logic is a bet on a Fed credibility crisis and the decline of the dollar's safe-haven status, reflecting mainstream asset managers' recognition of gold's medium- to long-term logic. 2. US debt credit risk — the core driver of this rally The current gold pricing logic has shifted from the traditional real interest rate framework to a credit logic dominated by US fiscal sustainability and sovereign credit risk. The US Treasury has doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchase operations, but market concerns remain amid a $40 trillion fiscal deficit. The key variable driving gold prices is shifting from interest rates to dollar credit hedging and de-dollarization. 3. Geopolitical situation — short-term suppressing factor Significant progress reported in US-Iran ceasefire talks, with consensus reached on free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil prices to fall sharply. The decline in geopolitical risk premium limits gold's short-term upside space. 4. Key events this week — PCE data and Jackson Hole Symposium · Tonight (August 26): US July PCE data and Q2 GDP revision · Friday: Fed Chair Waller's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium · CME data currently shows a 60.4% probability the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, and a 39.6% chance of a rate hike The above are personal views for reference only. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨