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招財進寶,萬事如意
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#日韩同日抛售美元护汇
Japan and South Korea did something quite rare yesterday—simultaneously selling US dollars and buying their own currencies. Japan directly spent about $52.8 billion, possibly the largest single-day intervention in their history. South Korea has caught up as well, with the won surging to 1418 against the US dollar, a nine-month high.
The Bank of Japan just finished its meeting, keeping interest rates unchanged at 1%. After the meeting, the yen surged sharply from 163.74 to 157.98, but later returned to around 160. The South Korean Deputy Finance Minister made something thought-provoking—"We are maintaining close coordination with the US and Japan, and will continue to cooperate." This is equivalent to indirectly acknowledging the existence of joint intervention.
Even more interestingly, the United States is also cooperating. Reuters captured a notebook from Finance Minister Becent's meeting that read, "Buy 5 to 10 billion yen." The New York Fed then represented the Treasury by selling euros and buying yen. The last time the U.S. did this was during the 2011 Japan earthquake. Jun Mimura hinted that the U.S. was involved, including the prelude to intervention by the "interest rate check."
The motivations of the two countries are quite different. On Japan's side, the yen has fallen to its 40-year low, and import costs can no longer be sustained. On South Korea's side, the won hit a 17-year low last month. But the deeper reason is that U.S. Treasury yields have reached a 19-year high. If the yen falls further, Japan can only keep selling U.S. Treasuries to exchange for dollars to intervene, which in turn pushes U.S. Treasury yields higher and is also detrimental to the U.S.
How long the intervention effect will last is uncertain. Last time during such large-scale operations, the yen lasted a few days before going back. As long as the interest rate differential between Japan and the US remains, the logic of one-sided betting remains intact. However, this time the three countries are acting simultaneously, which is indeed different from before. Speculators who bet on yen depreciation will face much greater resistance than before.
For the crypto market, a weaker dollar usually supports BTC prices. But the joint intervention itself also shows that the global liquidity environment is becoming increasingly contradictory—the U.S. is shrinking its balance sheet while interfering with exchange rates. The long-term impact of this contradictory policy mix on risk assets may be more noteworthy than short-term exchange rate fluctuations.
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