Post

TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
Influential Creator
Show original
Yesterday, I briefly discussed Japan and South Korea from a geopolitical perspective. But after just one day, both countries simultaneously rescued their markets. Everyone knows Hynix has surged, but the yen exchange rate has attracted less attention from the stock and crypto circles, but the intensity is just as fierce. After last year's tariff war, the yen surged from 140 to 160+, recently reaching a peak close to 164. I remember two years ago, Ni Da@PhyrexNi and I even made a bet on whether the yen would get closer to 160 or 130 in October 2024. However, Japan still had strength that year, and the yen was still fluctuating within a wide range, which was completely different from today's one-sided depreciation. The core problems for Japan and South Korea are actually their industrial chains being dismantled by China and the US. In particular, many of Japan's original advantageous industries have been caught up by China and have lowered profit margins, leaving them with no external profits to exchange for dollars to replenish their own currencies. On top of that, the military-civilian dual-use ban aimed at disrupting Japan's national transport is bleak, and expectations of depreciation are high. Many say the South Korean stock market has been shaken by the U.S. and technology by China. Although this isn't entirely accurate, there is some truth to it. First of all, the money was indeed taken. With the no-fly ban not yet implemented, the rebound mainly came from foreign capital. Data shows that today marked the largest single-day net buying by foreign capital in history, with SK Hynix at 3.59 trillion and Samsung at 2.10 trillion. After this bottom-fishing, the control of domestic Korean capital may further decline. In contrast, in the previous four trading days (24th-29th), foreign capital had a net sale of 11.95 trillion won. With a swift move, the Korean people were left with a lifetime of massive debt they could never repay, which is truly lamentable. The technology won't be taken away, but Sanhai's vitality has been severely weakened, and the US has repeatedly required relocation and factory relocations, which objectively contributed time to Chinese capital catching up. Sanhai's stock price falls, Changxin rises, and the capital cost scissors gap forms between these shifts and gains. The winner of the capital expenditure race essentially depends on who has cheaper capital, and this gap is constantly marking prices to "catch up with time" and shift speed. The collapse of salaries from the stock price crash + severe damage to morale will accelerate engineers' migration to Chinese capital. The close geographical and cultural ties between China and Korea, combined with China's visa-free policy for South Korea, make it even more convenient—engineers can go to Suzhou or Hefei for interviews without even going through formalities. In reality, the technology leak cases of South Korean prosecutors have never ceased. From the perspective of the dollar's tide, there are very few countries large enough to absorb enough to cover the U.S. deficit, and the one China definitely won't save is Japan. At least before Changxin conquered HBM, South Korea was still a united front target that pulled and fought simultaneously, so the injuries were probably lighter. In short, this stock market crash has taken away the right to financing, pricing, major client orders, and the right to claim more and more future profits; What China has taken away is industrial profit margins and technological catch-up time. Japan and South Korea still have factories, engineers, and core technologies, but bear the highest capital expenditures, exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical costs. The real reason behind the sharp fluctuations in the Korean stock exchange rate lies here. #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, setting the largest single-day gain in history by #日韩同日抛售美元护汇 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU
TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
说起来作为一个平时喜欢关注地缘,金融,炒股,炒币的人在这波海力士ADR上市事件中真的是学到了以及见证历史了。 稍微有点年龄的人应该还记得97年亚洲金融危机,当时韩国大妈纷纷卖掉金首饰支持国家。 这次这波海力士事件也很像是一件美国设计好吃掉韩国优质资产的事。 美国现在的处境大家都很清楚了,整体国力相比于97年衰落太多吃相只能更难看。 在韩国股市上蹿下跳的同时,日元汇率也在不断下探,破165只是时间问题,明年干到180也基本上是注定要发生得了。 说回三星海力士,这两家典型韩企也是在几次危机中逐渐丧失股权控制权的。这次危机又是一个收紧绳索的好时机。 抛开涨跌不看,本质上是美国需要吃掉盟友补自己的亏空。 所以除了前面提到的那些可能的救市力量之外,后续也许会有美资收购/注资等新闻出来,如果真的发生了,那这次的故事就完全闭环了。到那时候股价也应该就是真的到底开始反转了。 没有人知道现在仅限于存储赛道的危机是否会扩散到整个金融系统和股市。也没有人知道此次“青瓦台协议”是不是类似于让日本失去三十年的“广场协议”。但是,韩国的政治架构决定了它不会过得太好,不是不努力,是不被允许。$SKHYNIX $SKHY $MU #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入,财长为杠杆ETF道歉 #

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!